1491Impact of COVID19 on years of life lost with and without disability across 18 European-countries
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Background To accurately assess the impact of COVID19 on life-expectancy, years life lost, and prevalence dementia disability, a model integrating calendar-trends in cardiovascular-disease, dementia, disability mortality is required. We estimated these impacts Austria, Belgium, Czech-Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK. Methods Data to inform ten-state Monte-Carlo Markov-model for 18 European countries were derived from official-statistics population-numbers mortality-rates (age&sex-specific) Survey Health, Ageing Retirement Europe prevalence-estimates transition-probabilities. Impact was measured comparing estimates incorporating expected rates assuming incidence cardiovascular-disease continue those past two-decades, excess mortality. Results Assuming COVID-19 vaccination termination pandemic will be accomplished by end 2021, have resulted loss 9.3M (95% Uncertainty-Interval 1.3M-29.8M) person-years life, including 7.1M dementia-free 5.2M disability-free among 289M population (as 2019) above age-35. effects life-expectancy presented. Conclusions lost are devastating, marking need more rapid actions halt spread epidemics. Key messages Accurate estimation future quantify needs simultaneously account declining trends decline cardiovascular disease resulting increased larger pool susceptible disability. result 9.3million life.
منابع مشابه
Prevalence of hepatitis A across various countries in the Middle East, African and Eastern European countries
متن کامل
the role of russia in transmission of energy from central asia and caucuses to european union
پس ازفروپاشی شوروی،رشد منابع نفت و گاز، آسیای میانه و قفقاز را در یک بازی ژئوپلتیکی انرژی قرار داده است. با در نظر گرفتن این منابع هیدروکربنی، این منطقه به یک میدانجنگ و رقابت تجاری برای بازی های ژئوپلتیکی قدرت های بزرگ جهانی تبدیل شده است. روسیه منطقه را به عنوان حیات خلوت خود تلقی نموده و علاقمند به حفظ حضورش می باشد تا همانند گذشته گاز طبیعی را به وسیله خط لوله مرکزی دریافت و به عنوان یک واس...
15 صفحه اول“the effect of risk aversion on the demand for life insurance: the case of iranian life insurance market”
abstract: about 60% of total premium of insurance industry is pertained?to life policies in the world; while the life insurance total premium in iran is less than 6% of total premium in insurance industry in 2008 (sigma, no 3/2009). among the reasons that discourage the life insurance industry is the problem of adverse selection. adverse selection theory describes a situation where the inf...
15 صفحه اولCalculating disability-adjusted-life-years lost (DALYs) in discrete-time
Disability-adjusted-life-years lost (DALYs) is a common outcome metric for cost-effectiveness analyses, and the equations used for such calculations have been presented previously by Fox-Rushby and Hanson (see, e.g., "Health Policy and Planning 16:326-331, 2001"). While the equations are clear, the logic behind them is opaque at best for a large share of public health practitioners and students...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Epidemiology
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1464-3685', '0300-5771']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab168.017